Liam Lawson’s impressive return to Red Bull may have given the New Zealander a chance to prove his ability, but it appears the team has already made a major decision about his long-term future.
Lawson stepped back into the Red Bull seat at Zandvoort after Isack Hadjar was ruled out with a wrist injury. Despite the pressure surrounding his unexpected return, the 24-year-old delivered a composed performance, qualifying strongly and finishing seventh to score valuable points for the team.
That performance inevitably reignited the debate over whether Red Bull should reconsider Lawson’s position. However, according to reports, Red Bull are negotiating a contract extension with Hadjar, with an announcement expected soon. Max Verstappen’s commitment to the team through 2030 also means Red Bull’s two senior seats could effectively be locked down for the foreseeable future.
LAWSON’S RED BULL COMEBACK MAY NOT CHANGE HIS FATE
Lawson’s Dutch Grand Prix performance was particularly significant because of what happened during his first spell with Red Bull. He was promoted to the senior team at the beginning of 2025 but was sent back to Racing Bulls after only two races.
His return at Zandvoort therefore represented more than simply replacing an injured driver. It was an opportunity to demonstrate that Red Bull may have made the wrong call previously.
He did exactly that. Finishing seventh while Verstappen retired gave Lawson a valuable opportunity to show his pace under intense scrutiny. Will Buxton described the weekend as a chance for Lawson to put his difficult Red Bull experience behind him and show the team what it might have missed.
Yet one strong weekend may not be enough to overturn a decision already being shaped behind the scenes.
HADJAR’S CONTRACT COULD CLOSE THE DOOR
The biggest development for Lawson is the reported progress of Hadjar’s contract extension.
Hadjar has impressed during his first season with the senior Red Bull operation, producing a string of strong results before his wrist injury interrupted his campaign. His performances have seemingly convinced Red Bull that he remains part of their long-term plans.
If the reported extension is completed, Red Bull would have little reason to reconsider its hierarchy. Verstappen would remain the established team leader, while Hadjar would continue developing alongside him.
For Lawson, that could mean his impressive Dutch GP performance ultimately becomes a showcase rather than an audition for a permanent Red Bull seat.
LAWSON’S 2027 FUTURE IS THE BIGGER PROBLEM
Ironically, the most immediate concern for Lawson may not even be Red Bull.
His Racing Bulls future reportedly remains uncertain, and the New Zealander admitted after the Dutch Grand Prix that he had received no firm assurances about his 2027 position.
That leaves him in an uncomfortable situation. He has demonstrated that he can perform when given a Red Bull opportunity, but the senior team’s apparent commitment to Verstappen and Hadjar leaves him dependent on what happens at Racing Bulls.
The competition there is also growing. Arvid Lindblad and Red Bull junior Nikola Tsolov are reportedly among those challenging Lawson for a place on the 2027 grid.
RED BULL’S DRIVER STRATEGY IS GETTING TOUGHER
Red Bull’s approach demonstrates just how unforgiving the modern F1 driver market has become. A driver can deliver a strong performance in a top car and still find himself without a guaranteed seat the following season.
For Lawson, the timing is particularly frustrating. His seventh-place finish at Zandvoort arrived precisely when he needed to make a statement, but Red Bull may already have decided that Hadjar represents the better long-term investment.
The situation could still change if Hadjar’s recovery takes longer than expected or if Lawson continues producing standout performances. But unless circumstances shift dramatically, Lawson’s Red Bull comeback appears increasingly likely to be temporary.
The pressure now moves to the upcoming Italian Grand Prix. If Lawson gets another opportunity at Monza, another convincing performance could make his position impossible for Red Bull to ignore—even if it cannot immediately give him a permanent seat.
