Lewis Hamilton’s decision to leave Mercedes for Ferrari was one of the most sensational moves in Formula 1 history.

The seven-time World Champion did not simply change teams. He walked away from the organisation with which he had won six of his seven titles and joined the most famous team in Formula 1 in pursuit of one final achievement: winning a championship with Ferrari.

But as the 2026 season enters its closing stages, the dream is facing another major test.

Ferrari’s performance has slipped behind Mercedes, Red Bull and McLaren in key areas, Hamilton’s championship challenge has faded, and questions surrounding team principal Fred Vasseur have intensified.

The situation has become serious enough that Ferrari has now publicly reaffirmed its confidence in Vasseur, attempting to end speculation about his future.

That does not mean Hamilton made a mistake by joining Ferrari.

But it does mean the gamble he took is becoming increasingly difficult to justify purely through sporting results.

HAMILTON LEFT MERCEDES AT A VERY DIFFERENT MOMENT

To understand Hamilton’s decision, it is important to go back to the beginning.

When Hamilton announced his move to Ferrari, Mercedes were no longer the unstoppable force they had been during the previous decade.

The team’s dominant era had ended after the 2021 championship battle, and its ground-effect-era car concept initially failed to deliver the expected performance.

The famous zero-sidepod philosophy produced disappointing results, while Red Bull became the benchmark.

By the end of 2023, Mercedes had completed its first winless season since 2011.

Hamilton still finished third in the Drivers’ Championship, but Ferrari appeared to offer something Mercedes could not: a new project and the possibility of becoming the driver who finally delivered another championship to Maranello.

THE FERRARI DREAM WAS TOO BIG TO IGNORE

Hamilton had never hidden the attraction of Ferrari.

Driving for the Scuderia is one of the few experiences that can still add a completely different chapter to the career of a seven-time World Champion.

Ferrari’s history includes Michael Schumacher’s extraordinary run of success, numerous legendary drivers and an unmatched position within Formula 1.

For Hamilton, there was also a very specific sporting target.

An eighth World Championship at Ferrari would have created an extraordinary final chapter to his career.

That possibility helped make the 2024 announcement one of the biggest stories Formula 1 had seen in years.

But Ferrari’s competitiveness was never guaranteed.

And that is where the gamble began.

2025 DID NOT DELIVER THE DREAM START

Hamilton’s first Ferrari season failed to produce the championship challenge many had imagined.

McLaren and Red Bull emerged as the leading forces, while Hamilton struggled to consistently match Charles Leclerc.

There were flashes of promise, but the overall picture was not what Ferrari or Hamilton wanted.

The 2026 season initially appeared more encouraging.

Hamilton finally secured his first Ferrari Grand Prix victory in Spain and added further strong results, while his championship position improved.

For a period, the possibility of a genuine title challenge appeared realistic.

Then the momentum disappeared.

HAMILTON’S 2026 TITLE CHALLENGE HAS COLLAPSED

The latest numbers explain why the criticism has become so intense.

After the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, Hamilton sits third in the 2026 Drivers’ Championship on 199 points.

George Russell is second on 236, while championship leader Kimi Antonelli has 302.

Hamilton is therefore 103 points behind Antonelli with the season moving toward its final phase.

His recent run is also concerning from a results perspective.

Hamilton finished sixth in Baku after qualifying sixth, while teammate Charles Leclerc recovered to fourth.

The Ferrari pair therefore finished behind both Mercedes and Red Bull’s lead drivers, despite Leclerc starting from the front row.

The problem is not simply that Hamilton is losing a championship battle.

It is that Ferrari increasingly appears unable to fight consistently at the front.

BAKU EXPOSED FERRARI’S WEAKNESSES

The Azerbaijan Grand Prix provided a particularly revealing example.

Leclerc qualified second, only 0.837 seconds behind George Russell’s pole position.

Hamilton qualified sixth.

On paper, Ferrari still appeared capable of challenging.

Race day told a different story.

Leclerc struggled to defend his position during the opening stages and eventually finished fourth, while Hamilton could only manage sixth.

Formula 1 reported that Hamilton struggled for pace on Baku’s long straights and also had difficulty keeping the tyres within the ideal operating window.

That combination is particularly damaging at a circuit such as Baku.

A car can be competitive through the technical sections and still lose substantial time if it cannot efficiently manage tyres and energy deployment while also producing enough straight-line performance.

FERRARI KNOWS THE CAR NEEDS MORE PERFORMANCE

The concerns are not simply coming from outside the team.

After Baku, Leclerc openly pointed to Ferrari’s lack of recent development as one reason for its disappointing performance.

Vasseur subsequently promised that developments for the SF-26 would arrive “soon.”

That admission is significant.

Formula 1 is an arms race.

Every team is constantly developing its car, and standing still effectively means moving backward because competitors continue to find performance.

If Ferrari’s rivals have gained more aerodynamic efficiency while Ferrari has struggled to match their development rate, the gap can become increasingly difficult to recover.

HAMILTON’S AGE MAKES TIME AN IMPORTANT FACTOR

There is another element that makes Hamilton’s Ferrari situation particularly fascinating.

Hamilton is now 41.

That does not mean he cannot win again.

His career has repeatedly demonstrated that experience can remain an enormous advantage in Formula 1.

But the window for another championship is naturally becoming smaller.

A young driver can afford to spend several seasons waiting for a competitive project to mature.

For Hamilton, every season carries greater significance.

If Ferrari needs several more years to build a genuine championship-winning package, Hamilton may not have the luxury of waiting indefinitely.

That is what makes the current situation so frustrating.

FERRARI’S PROBLEMS ARE BIGGER THAN HAMILTON

It would also be unfair to place Ferrari’s struggles entirely on Hamilton.

Charles Leclerc is experiencing many of the same competitive limitations.

The Monegasque driver qualified second in Baku but could not maintain a podium position during the race.

Ferrari currently has 378 points in the Constructors’ Championship, compared with 538 for Mercedes. McLaren sits third on 306, according to the current standings.

That means Ferrari is still comfortably ahead of McLaren in the championship table, but it is nowhere near Mercedes’ level.

The data therefore points toward an organisational and technical problem rather than simply a driver problem.

VASSEUR IS NOW UNDER THE MICROSCOPE

Ferrari’s leadership situation has added another layer to the story.

Christian Horner’s recent comments about Ferrari helped fuel speculation that he could potentially return to Formula 1 as part of the Scuderia’s leadership structure.

Horner described Ferrari as the biggest brand in Formula 1 and called the prospect of leading the team a dream.

That immediately intensified questions about Vasseur.

But Ferrari has now made its position clear.

Chief communications officer Maria Conti said the team has “full confidence” in Vasseur and his team and that Ferrari’s position has not changed.

So, at least publicly, Ferrari is backing its current leadership.

HAMILTON HAS ALSO BACKED VASSEUR

Interestingly, Hamilton himself has not publicly called for a leadership change.

After Baku, when asked whether Vasseur remains the right person to lead Ferrari, Hamilton answered “Yes.”

That is an important detail.

Hamilton has expressed frustration about Ferrari’s performance and called for the team to review areas such as energy management after his disappointing Baku weekend.

But frustration with performance is not the same thing as demanding a change at the top.

For now, Hamilton appears to be supporting the current Ferrari project.

THE MERCEDES ALTERNATIVE MAKES THE STORY MORE COMPLICATED

The most uncomfortable part of Hamilton’s Ferrari gamble is what has happened to Mercedes since he left.

Kimi Antonelli has emerged as the championship leader, while George Russell is second.

Mercedes leads the Constructors’ Championship with 538 points.

Hamilton’s former team has therefore become the strongest team in the 2026 standings.

That does not prove Hamilton should have stayed.

Mercedes’ future was uncertain when he made the decision, and Ferrari looked capable of offering a compelling alternative.

But hindsight inevitably makes the move look more painful.

Hamilton left Mercedes just as a new generation of Mercedes leadership and talent began to produce results.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER FERRARI CAN RECOVER

The Ferrari project is not necessarily doomed.

That distinction is crucial.

Formula 1 can change incredibly quickly.

A successful upgrade package can transform a team’s competitive position within a few races.

A technical regulation change can completely reorder the grid.

Ferrari also has enormous resources, technical talent and one of the most powerful brands in global motorsport.

The team’s current weakness therefore does not automatically mean its future is bleak.

But Ferrari needs to demonstrate that it understands where the performance deficit is coming from.

HAMILTON’S FERRARI LEGACY IS STILL BEING WRITTEN

It would be premature to describe Hamilton’s Ferrari move as the biggest mistake of his career.

That is an opinion, not an established fact.

Hamilton has already achieved something unique by becoming a Ferrari driver, and he has also won a race with the Scuderia.

More importantly, his Ferrari chapter is not finished.

If Ferrari produces a genuinely competitive car in 2027 or beyond, the narrative could change very quickly.

The same move that currently looks frustrating could eventually become the foundation of one of the most memorable late-career comebacks in F1 history.

BUT THE PRESSURE IS NOW REAL

What cannot be disputed is that the pressure is increasing.

Hamilton wants another World Championship.

Ferrari wants to return to the top.

Vasseur wants to prove that his long-term project can succeed.

Leclerc wants a car capable of fighting for victories.

And Mercedes, Red Bull and McLaren are all competing for the same prize.

There is no room for Ferrari to remain stuck in the middle of that battle.

The team needs performance.

Hamilton needs a competitive car.

And Ferrari needs to convert its enormous resources into results.

WHAT HAPPENS NEXT COULD DEFINE HAMILTON’S FERRARI ERA

The next phase of the season will therefore be crucial.

Ferrari has promised developments.

Hamilton has promised to keep pushing.

Vasseur has received public backing.

The SF-26 now needs to respond on the track.

If the upgrades deliver a meaningful improvement, the current criticism may begin to fade.

If Ferrari remains behind Mercedes and Red Bull while McLaren continues to close the gap, the pressure will become much harder to contain.

For Hamilton, every remaining race is another piece of evidence in the story of his Ferrari experiment.

FINAL TAKEAWAY

Lewis Hamilton’s decision to join Ferrari was always a massive gamble.

He left Mercedes after years of extraordinary success and chose the most iconic team in Formula 1 in the hope of adding an eighth World Championship to his record.

The gamble has produced moments of success, including his first Ferrari victory, but the 2026 season has increasingly exposed Ferrari’s weaknesses.

Hamilton is now third in the championship on 199 points, 103 behind Kimi Antonelli, while Mercedes leads Ferrari by 160 points in the Constructors’ Championship.

Ferrari’s problems extend well beyond Hamilton, and the team has promised further SF-26 developments.

At the same time, Ferrari has publicly backed Fred Vasseur despite growing speculation about his future.

So the verdict on Hamilton’s Ferrari decision is not written yet.

The dream of winning a championship in red is still alive—but Ferrari now has far less time to turn that dream into reality.