Liam Lawson’s prospects of remaining on the Formula 1 grid in 2027 are hanging in the balance, and a series of decisions already taken by Racing Bulls may reveal more about the team’s thinking than any public statement. The New Zealander is not under contract for next season, and while his 2026 performances have been solid, the junior team appears to be weighing a shift toward pure development of the next Red Bull prospects.
A strong points finish in Malaysia has done little to quieten the speculation.
### LAWSON’S SOLID BUT UNCERTAIN 2026 CAMPAIGN
Lawson has delivered a respectable season alongside rookie Arvid Lindblad, outscoring his team-mate by 27 points and recording his 12th points-scoring finish of the year with seventh place at the Bahrain Grand Prix in Sepang. He also stepped up to the senior Red Bull team for three races when Isack Hadjar was sidelined by a wrist injury, providing further evidence of his reliability under pressure.
Those results would normally strengthen a driver’s case for retention. At Racing Bulls, however, the longer-term agenda often prioritises the progression of younger academy talent over continuity.
### THE ROOKIE FP1 DECISIONS THAT RAISE QUESTIONS
Formula 1 regulations require each team to allocate four FP1 sessions to rookie drivers across the season — two per car. Lindblad was able to fulfil the requirement on his side of the garage during the early races. On Lawson’s side, Racing Bulls used one of the available sessions in Austria by giving the car to Ayumu Iwasa rather than Nikola Tsolov.
One rookie FP1 opportunity remains. How the team chooses to use it — and whether Tsolov is given mileage — will be watched closely as a potential indicator of 2027 planning. At present the Bulgarian is not being treated as an automatic race-seat successor, having also been linked with a reserve role.
### TSOLLOV’S POSITION IN THE RED BULL PATHWAY
Nikola Tsolov has been one of the more prominent Red Bull juniors in Formula 2. He led the championship earlier in the season before being overtaken by Rafael Camara following a quieter run of results. Even so, he remains firmly in the conversation for a future Racing Bulls opportunity.
Ralf Schumacher has been blunt in his assessment. Speaking to Sky Sports Germany, the former Formula 1 driver stated his belief that Lindblad will be retained and that Tsolov will be given the second seat. In Schumacher’s view, Lawson performed creditably but did not produce the decisive extra level required during his earlier stint at Red Bull, and the junior team’s purpose is to develop the next generation of stars.
### THE NARROWING OPTIONS IF LAWSON IS DROPPED
Should Racing Bulls elect to move on, Lawson’s route back onto the grid would be limited. Haas remain one of the few teams still to finalise their 2027 line-up, while a return to a Red Bull reserve role is possible but would represent another step away from regular race mileage. The example of Yuki Tsunoda, who has oscillated between the junior team, reserve duties and temporary race returns, illustrates both the opportunity and the precariousness of that pathway.
At 24, Lawson still has time on his side, yet prolonged absence from a race seat quickly erodes momentum in the hyper-competitive Formula 1 driver market.
### WHAT THE SITUATION SAYS ABOUT RED BULL’S DRIVER STRATEGY
Racing Bulls continues to function as both a competitive midfield outfit and a finishing school for Red Bull’s wider talent pool. That dual mandate creates inevitable tension. Drivers who deliver consistent points can still find themselves moved aside if a higher-ceiling junior is deemed ready for the next step.
Lawson’s case is complicated by his unusual recent pathway: promoted to Red Bull, quickly returned to the junior team, then asked to deputise again at the senior squad. The organisation has used him as a reliable operator; whether it now sees him as part of its long-term future is the question that remains unanswered.
### THE COMING WEEKS WILL BRING CLARITY
With only a limited number of races left in the season and one rookie FP1 slot still available, Racing Bulls’ next moves will carry extra significance. A decision to give Tsolov meaningful running would strengthen the impression that a change is coming. Continued silence or a different rookie selection would keep Lawson’s hopes alive a little longer.
For the moment the New Zealander’s future exists in the grey area familiar to many Red Bull juniors. He has done much of what has been asked of him in 2026. Whether that proves enough to secure another year on the grid is a decision that may already be taking shape behind closed doors.
